Scenarios : the art of strategic conversation

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Title Scenarios : the art of strategic conversation
Author VAN DER HEIJDEN, Kees
Abstract Scenarios deals with how managers can set out and negotiate a successful course into the future for the organization in the face of significant uncertainty. Uncertainties about the future are often felt to be uncomfortable and th us "swept under the table" by collapsing them into a single line forecast. This is tantamount to abdication of managerial responsibility. At worst it means a wild jump in the dark. Facing up to uncertainty changes the perspective on the future completely. The secret of success moves from "finding the best strategy" to "finding the best process". Thinking about scenarios - the different plausible future environments that can be imagined - is the key to thinking the process through and to keep thinking about it as the plans for the future unfold. Scenario planning is dynamic. The focus of attention needs to be on the ongoing "strategie conversation", penetrating both the formai and informai exchange of views through whieh the strategie understanding develops - and actions result. Scenarios deals first with the principles of organizational learning and then moves on to describe practieal and down·to·earth ways in whieh the organization can develop its skill in conducting an ongoing scenario·based strategy process. The methods described are based on many years of practical experience of managers in both large and small organizations; and they are grounded in solid logic.
xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-description-miscellaneous 321 pages, figures, bibliographie
URI http://hdl.handle.net/2042/32161
Date 1996
Identifiant P573

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