History in motion : 2003 scenario book

Abstract

It is difficult to take the long view when history is in motion, emerging before our very eyes: geopolitical instability, nuclear proliferation, the volatile state of the global economy, dangerous new diseases, and declining trust in corporations and governments. The list goes on. These turbulent times are, in part, consequences of an extraordinary transition from an industrial, nation-based, resource-oriented economy to a networked, knowledge-intensive economy. But the relatively recent and widespread assumption that unfetlered global markets would create a better future now faces significant challenges. Heady optimism has been replaced by a sobering recognition of the complexity and complications of our world. These new times require new mindsets, new approaches, and new wisdom. Within this content, we see a number of "dynamic tensions" that will reshape the global business environment in the decade ahead. Often paradoxical, they will pose significant new challenges and opportunities for business along the way. We will see, for example, the spread of more market-based prosperity across the world, as well as the tragic prospect of further decline in some countries. We will witness the ongoing emergence of the "intangible" economy, as we also become increasingly aware of the importance of physical infrastructure. The rising military and strategic power of the D.S. will coexist with a more dangerous, unpredictable world where people feel a deep sense of vulnerability. Technology acceleration will offer enticing new possibilities, but will also create pushback as society becomes more anxious about the consequences of change. Tensions between the "sacred" and "secular" worldviews will lead to new forms of fundamentalism and, alternatively, arise in spirituality movements. As we pay more attention to environmental sustainability, we will witness growing confusion thanks to rising climatic instability. Finally, an explosion of information will create unprecedented transparency and clarity, but will also lead to craziness and multiple truths. These tensions are useful constructs for identifying some critical elements of change, but they do not offer a framework for thinking about alternative futures. Instead, we offer two deep, embedded uncertainties that are of critical importance as we prepare for the long term. Firstly, will America exert more or less economic and cultural influence globally? Secondly, are the effective sources of leadership, innovation, and change primarily centralized and "top down" or decentralized and ''bottom up?". By juxtaposing these two uncertainties we arrive at a scenario matrix that posits four divergent, yet plausible futures. These global scenarios are stories-not extrapolations or predictions- and are intended to provoke broader and deeper thinking and learning about how the future might unfold. The four scenarios are: New American Century: a world where American expertise-military, economic, commercial, and scientific-proves increasingly important at a time of great stress Eurasian New Deal: a world in which increasing global problems- terror, economic turmoil, and environmental degradation-lead to the return of big government, and rising influence of Europe and China XI Adaptive Strain: a world in which networks, speed, and creativity rule, and the ~new economy" dreams of the 19905 reappear, this time for real Creative Disorder: a world where old rules stop working, and power and influence seep away from hierarchies and corporations toward communities and nongovernmental organizations In any of these futures, we may need to challenge some fundamental assumptions and conventional wisdoms about business objectives, priorities, and practices. The recent emphasis on globalization makes it important to imagine the consequences of "localization ." An excessive focus on productivity fails to account for the crucial role of "redundancy." The metaphor of competitiveness needs to be complemented by more emphasis on co-creation. The concentration on fast growth should be augmented by the idea of long-term survival. Focused management and metrics are in danger of missing the benefits of ambiguity. Finally, the emphasis on technology runs the risk of overlooking critical issues about humanity: attracting and developing our people, acknowledging a human hunger for deeper meaning, and reframing our thoughts about leadership. Ultimately, we look to you to apply the 2003 GBN Scenario Book on a practical and human level. We hope that it becomes for you a valuable window on "history in motion"-the underlying forces and the resulting implications. More importantly, we hope that you can use these ideas to provoke deeper strategic conversations within your own organizations about potential risks and opportunities, and the emerging issues that need to rise on your strategic and learning agendas. Ultimately we hope it will inform your thinking about the type of future you want-and can help to create.